Monday, April 11, 2011

Stanley Cup Predictions

Last season, the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs followed a pattern. In all 8 matchups, the team that won the regular-season series also won the playoff series. Overtime wins were discounted and SO wins even less important as they don't happen in the playoffs. If the season series was split, the team with home-ice advantage won. Unfortunately, I didn't figure this out until after the round had completed, so wasn't able to gamble using this strategy.

This season though, I'm ready to go. The playoffs are set and using this method I'm going to predict the result right down to the Stanley Cup winner. Each series is listed with the regular season record next to it.

Washington vs NY Rangers 1-2-1 (Wow, will Washington wobble?)
Philadelphia vs Buffalo 2-1-1 (Sabres will make this a close series)
Boston vs Montreal 2-3-1 (Would this be a big upset?)
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay 2-2 (Home teams won all 4, so give it to Pittsburgh here)

Philadelphia vs NY Rangers 4-1-1 (Without Callahan, the Rangers fall here)
Pittsburgh vs Montreal 1-2-1 (Without Crosby, the Pens fall here)

Philadelphia vs Montreal 3-1 (Repeat of last year's Eastern Final)

Vancouver vs Chicago 2-1-1 (Can Canucks Crush Chicago Curse?)
San Jose vs Los Angeles 3-1-2 (Sharks look strong)
Detroit vs Phoenix 2-1-1 vs 2-0-2 (Season split, but Phoenix won the only game to end in regulation, Coyotes advance)
Anaheim vs Nashville 1-3 (only Anaheim win was on a goal scored with 1.7 seconds left)

Vancouver vs Phoenix 2-2-0 vs 2-1-1 (One Canuck win in OT so Phoenix advances)
San Jose vs Nashville 2-2-0 vs 2-0-2 (Nashville's wins in regulation, SJ's in OT, Predators move on)

Nashville vs Phoenix 2-2 (Nashville to the final based on better goal differential and home advantage)

Stanley Cup

Philadelphia vs Nashville 1-0 (Flyers to win the Cup!)

So there you have it. Philadelphia is going to be the Stanley Cup champions for 2010-11. Remember you heard it here first!



P.S. With injuries and playoff history a factor, my personal predictions are a bit different: Boston over Buffalo and Detroit over Vancouver in the conference championships to make an original 6 final with Boston winning in 7.

Update: The season series wasn't meaningful with 4 of the 8 turning out right. I got 6 out of 8, missing on Buffalo and Pittsburgh. I'll take Washington, Boston, Vancouver, and Detroit, and stick with Boston over Detroit as the Stanley Cup pick.

Update 2: Detroit almost made me look pretty smart but with their loss, I only got 2 out of 4 semi-finalists, nothing to brag about. I'll stay with Boston in the East and take Vancouver in the west, simply because I've already said that San Jose cannot win the Cup.

Update 3: Got those two right, so 10 out of 14 series, just above breakeven if I was gambling. Sticking with Boston in 7 for the final.

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