The MLB Awards will be announced this week and as I have done on occasion in the past, I look at my proprietary Bases Per Out (BPO) statistic to determine who should win each award. To refresh your memory, the formula is: (TB+BB+SB+HBP+SAC+SF)/(AB-H+CS+SAC+SF+GIDP). That's the total bases achieved by the batter against the number of outs he made, and obviously, the higher the ratio the better. Again, this statistic excludes defensive contributions.
MVP
Here are the top 5 in BPO in the AL:
Player Bases Outs BPO
Mike Trout 456 335 1.361
Mookie Betts 457 356 1.284
J.D. Martinez 444 408 1.089
Jose Ramirez 473 436 1.085
Alex Bregman 437 446 0.980
As usual, Mike Trout was the best player in the league, but with his Angels finishing a distant 4th in the AL West, he will not win the MVP. It will go to Mookie Betts, who led the Red Sox to the East title. As always, the argument revolves around whether "Most Valuable" equates to "Best". Trout was the best player in the league but without him, the Angels are terrible instead of mediocre. Without Betts, Boston might finish behind New York. So he will win the MVP and he deserves it. Winner: Betts
Here are the top 5 in the NL:
Player Bases Outs BPO
Christian Yelich 442 407 1.086
Bryce Harper 431 432 0.998
Paul Goldschmidt 419 432 0.970
Matt Carpenter 411 424 0.969
Brandon Nimmo 320 333 0.961
A no-brainer here as Yelich was obviously the best player in the league and led the Brewers to the best record as well. Javier Baez was a defensive stud, but his BPO of 0.872 should preclude him from this award. Winner: Yelich
Cy Young
For pitchers, the statistic is reversed, giving Outs Per Base (Outs/(TB+BB+HB+WP+BK+SB)), with higher numbers again better. In the AL, there are three contenders: Blake Snell (1.936), Corey Kluber (1.914) and Justin Verlander (1.911). All are worthy candidates, but Snell will take it with his 21 wins. Winner: Snell
In the NL, Jacob DeGrom had an OPB of 2.3, 16% better than Aaron Nola at 1.978. DeGrom finished 10-9 but he was so much better than any other pitcher that he should win this award. None of those with an OPB above 1.9 (Nola, Mikolas, Scherzer) made the playoffs either, so I don't think the voters will get swayed by that, and DeGrom will win, sparking debate about the meaning of pitcher wins. Winner: DeGrom with 29 of 30 first-place votes. No debate after all.
Rookie of the Year
In the AL, there are three rookies that stood out for their offensive contributions: Yankees Miguel Andujar (0.808) and Gleyber Torres (0.806) along with Shohei Ohtani of the Angels (0.975). Ohtani had the extra benefit of throwing 51.1 innings with a very strong OPB of 1.703, making him the frontrunner.
But there was also a pitcher who performed extraordinarily well, namely Brad Keller of KC, who had an OPB of 1.725. This is where we need to compare BPO and OPB. The best way to do that is to see how much better each player was to the average. In this case, the average BPO in the AL is 0.692 while the average OPB is 1.425. Ohtani is 40% above the average on offense, while Keller is 21% above. Add in Ohtani's pitching stats, though, and he is clearly superior, and his total plate appearances at bat and on the mound equals 578, meaning he played enough to qualify for this award despite his injury. He should win, though the voters may penalize him for the games he missed and give it to Andujar (Keller is not even nominated). Winner: Ohtani
In the NL, there are two candidates on the offensive side: Juan Soto of Washington (0.980) and Ronald Acuna Jr. of Atlanta (0.972), whose overall statistics are remarkably similar. The only pitcher worth considering is Walker Buehler of the Dodgers, whose OPB of 2.081 would rank him second in the majors if he qualified. Again, we compare to the average (in the NL the numbers were 0.681 and 1.482 respectively) and find that Soto and Acuna are 47% and 45% better than average, while Buehler is 40% above the mean. All three players are worthy, but the award will go to Acuna I think, because Atlanta won the division and that still matters in the voters' minds. Winner: Acuna
So I got all 6 right, but that is not saying much as this year had only one tight race.
Best,
Sean
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