If you follow sports at all, you will have heard about Major League Baseball's recent proposal to shrink the number of affiliated minor league teams from 160 to 120, cutting 42 current franchises and adding two independent league teams (St. Paul and Sugar Land). Short-season leagues will bear the brunt of the contraction, with 2/3 of the teams coming from the those circuits, including the elimination of the entire Pioneer League and the Appalachian League losing all but Pulaski. Some A and AA teams will be contracted, while a few larger market franchises in lower leagues (Vancouver and Brooklyn for example) will move up in level. Affiliations will also change so that each MLB team has exactly four minor league affiliates (AAA, AA, High A and Low A). Meanwhile, those towns that lose their teams will still be part of a vaguely defined "Dream League" that will see mostly undrafted free agents playing for a shot, with little or no support from the majors. As well, the draft would be moved to August from June, and reduced to 20 rounds from its current 40 as major league teams would need far fewer players to fill their minor league system.
The reasons are sensible from MLB's point of view as minor league baseball is remarkably inefficient. The vast majority of minor leaguers are organizational filler; players needed so that those who are actually prospects can play games. Do players really improve facing guys who will be selling insurance in a few years? Why not concentrate your development efforts with four franchises rather than seven, with teams stocked with prospects rather than having one or two potential big leaguers at the lower levels? You can then pay those players more too. Add in the fact that some minor league facilities do not meet increasingly high standards in terms of locker rooms and other amenities, along with the long bus rides for lower level teams, and you can see why MLB has put forth this proposal. I don't like it, but I understand where they are coming from.
As you would expect, reaction in the baseball world has been universally negative, as is usually the case when a significant change is introduced. Commentators allude to the destruction of communities, the elimination of sleepers like Raul Ibanez (36th round in 1992) and Mike Piazza (62nd round in 1998) being drafted, and the end of baseball as we know it. All of these are poor arguments because they don't address the problem that MLB is trying to solve: inefficiency. And they are also wrong.
Minor league franchises move all the time and communities survive; it is silly to think that Bluefield, with an average attendance of 611 over 31 games in 2019, will suffer greatly if the Blue Jays suddenly fly away. Fans will mourn and move on, just like they have done in Brevard County, Bellingham, and Bakersfield. And if the Dream League takes shape (I'm betting it won't), then those fans can still see baseball. It might not be affiliated, but most fans just want to sit back and relax and really don't care about the quality of the game or in what round a particular player was drafted. And sure, it is always nice to have a surprise come out of the later rounds, but that doesn't mean that teams should spend tens of millions to develop a bunch of nobodies for one late bloomer every few years. Similarly, to say that the disappearance of 42 franchises will have a large impact on the popularity of the game is ridiculous. These are small markets with matching attendance numbers and that is why they are being targeted. Baseball has treated fans with disdain for years and we still come back. This will be no different.
The problem in baseball is that the game is now run by analytical minds who put efficiency above all else. If you want to change their minds, appeal to their sense of economics, not emotions. For example, many affiliates have spent money upgrading their facilities at the request of their parent club; the possibility of lawsuits from local governments could lead to some meaningful negotiations. And that is the key word here: negotiation. MLB and commissioner Rob Manfred want to simplify their minor league operations and they have lobbed the first grenade, but this plan is by no means final. Minor league franchises on the cutting block need to figure out a smart way to reply that solves the problems faced by MLB and allows them to continue in some form. Perhaps the most important economic aspect is baseball's anti-trust exemption. If the minor league owners can figure out a way to show that MLB is abusing it with this one-sided proposal, costing them their franchises, they could end up winning the war. It will be tough, but not impossible.
Personally, I don't like the idea because minor league baseball is the type of sports road trip I enjoy most. In particular, my favourite leagues are those short-season ones that take me to small towns that I would not go to otherwise. Some of my favourite experiences have been in locales like Elizabethton and Great Falls. Unfortunately, I am in the minority and most sports fans want to travel to the big events, so there is no argument about minor league ball leading to millions of dollars in tourism for these places. I'm glad I completed by quest to see a game in all 160 active minor league stadiums and I don't want to see that number drop to 120. But if it did, I'd still go to every new venue, and I'd probably start visiting independent leagues more as the quality of ball would improve there with a lot more younger players who would have been plying their trade in the low minors instead.
So what do I think should happen? I do believe the minors need to change somewhat for the 2021 season, which is when the next contract between the two organizations will take effect, but not to the extent proposed by MLB. For 2021, the Pioneer and Appalachian Leagues could take a year off and renovate their facilities. In 2022, the Northwest and certain teams in the New York Penn League could do the same. Meanwhile, MLB would be able to focus on negotiations with the Players Association, with that agreement expiring after the 2021 season. And here is the solution: part of the new contract will include two expansion teams for 2024 (with Montreal being one). Lo and behold, those two expansion teams would need minor league affiliates and five levels for each of 32 MLB teams equals 160 - the same number we have now. St. Paul and Sugar Land would jump in and a few larger market teams in the lower levels would move up accordingly.
It might be tricky to get leagues and affiliations correct, especially with minor league franchises moving from place to place, but it could be done over three years. In the end, only two minor league franchises would be lost and I'm sure that two owners could be found to take some cash to make things more palatable.
In fact, I've put together one example of how the leagues and affiliations could look and this took me all of a couple of hours. Auburn and Batavia are the two franchises eliminated in this case, mainly because the New York-Penn League is the largest of the short season circuits with 14 teams and these two are already in trouble. St. Paul goes to AAA along with Frisco, whose stadium is bigger than Sugar Land, who join the Texas League instead. Nashville and Memphis move to the International League to give 16 teams in each AAA circuit. Aberdeen and Brooklyn make the big leap from the NYPL to the Eastern League. Two clubs (Augusta and Columbia in the example) can jump from the South Atlantic to the Carolina League, and those can be replaced by two from the Appalachian League (Danville and Pulaski). Mahoning Valley would move to the Midwest League, while Bowling Green would remain at Low A, but switch from Midwest to South Atlantic for geographic reasons. West Virginia would also leave the NYPL and join the South Atlantic, giving 16 teams in each Low A league. The four short-season leagues would have 8 teams each. The below table shows the potential affiliations for each major league team with exactly 5 levels of minors. Again, this is just one of many possibilities, but it certainly solves the issue of 42 teams disappearing from minor league baseball.
MLB Team | AAA | AA | A+ | A- | SS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore | Nashville | Aberdeen | Frederick | Delmarva | Norwich |
Boston | Worcester | Portland | Salem | Greenville | Lowell |
Tampa Bay | Durham | Montgomery | Charlotte | Kannapolis | Princeton |
Toronto | Buffalo | New Hampshire | Dunedin | Lansing | Tri-City |
Yankees | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | Trenton | Tampa | Charleston SC | Staten Island |
Cleveland | Columbus | Akron | Lynchburg | Lake County | Greeneville |
Detroit | Toledo | Erie | Lakeland | West Michigan | Kingsport |
Kansas City | Wichita | Northwest Arkansas | Wilmington | Lexington | Idaho Falls |
Minnesota | St. Paul | Pensacola | Fort Myers | Cedar Rapids | Missoula |
White Sox | Omaha | Birmingham | Winston-Salem | Kane County | Vancouver |
Anaheim | Fresno | Rocket City | Inland Empire | Burlington | Orem |
Houston | Round Rock | Corpus Christi | Fayetteville | Quad Cities | Billings |
Oakland | Las Vegas | Midland | Stockton | Beloit | Eugene |
Seattle | Tacoma | Arkansas | Modesto | Mahoning Valley | Everett |
Texas | Frisco | Sugar Land | Down East | Hickory | Spokane |
Atlanta | Gwinnett | Mississippi | Florida | Rome | Bluefield |
Mets | Syracuse | Brooklyn | Port St Lucie | Charleston WV | Hudson Valley |
Miami | Norfolk | Jacksonville | Jupiter | West Virginia | Burlington |
Philadelphia | Lehigh Valley | Reading | Clearwater | Lakewood | Williamsport |
Washington | Charlotte | Harrisburg | Fredericksburg | Hagerstown | Bristol |
Cincinnati | Louisville | Chattanooga | Daytona | Dayton | Elizabethton |
Cubs | Iowa | Tennessee | Myrtle Beach | South Bend | Boise |
Milwaukee | Salt Lake City | Biloxi | Carolina | Wisconsin | Rocky Mountain |
Pittsburgh | Indianapolis | Altoona | Bradenton | Greensboro | State College |
St. Louis | Memphis | Springfield | Palm Beach | Peoria | Johnson City |
Arizona | Reno | Jackson | Visalia | Bowling Green | Hillsboro |
Colorado | San Antonio | Hartford | Lancaster | Asheville | Grand Junction |
Los Angeles | Oklahoma City | Tulsa | Rancho Cucamonga | Great Lakes | Ogden |
San Diego | El Paso | Amarillo | Lake Elsinore | Fort Wayne | Tri-City |
San Francisco | Sacramento | Richmond | San Jose | Clinton | Salem-Keizer |
Montreal | Rochester | Binghamton | Columbia | Pulaski | Vermont |
Expansion | Albuquerque | Bowie | Augusta | Danville | Great Falls |
The key to all of this is MLB expansion, and I think the minors should include that in any negotiation platform they formulate. It will be interesting to follow developments over the next few months and I will post updates here as they happen.
Best,
Sean