The End of Sports as We Knew It?

It has been a month since the sports world shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic. Looking back, going to games in Hartford the weekend prior was not the smartest thing I've ever done. Despite my poor judgement, my family has been spared so far, which is even more surprising given that we are living in the epicenter of the epicenter in Queens. I did follow the story when it was first reported from Wuhan, and it is now obvious that it was not entirely accurate, as the Chinese government was hiding the true size of the problem. Remember the articles that said you should worry more about the regular flu? Even then, I thought I had better take precautions on the train, which I did by wearing gloves, even on warm days. No mask however. So yes, I am an idiot and lucky to have avoided infection. Or I got it and my whole family is asymptomatic.

When the Ivy League cancelled its tournament on March 10th, I realized that sports was done for a while, and it just took two days for the other leagues to follow suit. I actually don't miss sports that much as I am not a big TV watcher (having a toddler around really cuts down your TV time). I do miss travel of course, but am not complaining. I know that we are the fortunate ones in all of this, being able to work from home and having our little one around all the time and watching her grow. She has learned the word pandemic, but has yet to grasp its meaning.

We have been isolating ourselves since March 14, about a week before the official "shelter in place" order came down from Governor Cuomo. As I write this, we are 30 days inside, other than an occasional shopping trip or walk around the block (worrisome even with homemade masks). It is surreal to be in New York City, just a couple of miles from Elmhurst and a few blocks from Mount Sinai, two hospitals that are bearing the brunt of the virus in the city. We see none of this other than on the news, but ambulance sirens are nearly constant.

The numbers beggar belief. Over 20,000 dead in the U.S., with 40% from New York State alone. Over 100,000 worldwide and still climbing. And those numbers are undercounted because hundreds are dying at home without being tested. Many blame Trump and New York's mayor, Bill De Blasio, and certainly their reactions were far too slow, inconsistent and bumbling. But blame is pointless; there will never be accountability for the pandemic. Even now, when there is obvious evidence of the seriousness of the virus, selfish morons flout the social distancing rules here in NYC (and some will get sick and further stress our medical system unnecessarily). How many would have willingly sheltered at home on March 1, the date of the first reported case in NYC, if they had been so instructed? I knew the virus was spreading locally and I still drove to Hartford to watch two games. I did my best to avoid people while inside the arena, but even then, my behaviour was foolhardy. That's my fault. Even after that, I went to work in New Jersey for four days, changing my hours to avoid the worst of the rush hour trains but taking no other precautions. My company did not ask us to work from home until March 13, the day after the NHL went on hiatus and a state of emergency was declared in New York City.

Hindsight is wonderful, and once the first case was reported in the city, we all should have immediately stopped going to work and stocked up on food. Health officials knew that we had to start changing our behaviour immediately, but the message was never delivered. For another 12 days, New Yorkers continued as if nothing was wrong, commuting to work on crowded trains, going to bars and restaurants, hockey and basketball games, Broadway plays and movies and gyms. Many have paid for this delay with their lives (the MTA has lost over 50 workers so far), most of them from poorer communities comprised of immigrants. It is no surprise that the poor are suffering the most. Poverty leads to bad health, which leads to death when COVID-19 attacks. When have the poor ever ended up ahead? Other than in mortality statistics.

Fortunately, the measures seem to be working here as COVID-19 deaths have levelled off at between 700-800 per day in the state. Think about that for a minute. Another sobering fact: New York has 440 deaths per million people, more than any nation (Spain tops that list at 350). In NYC, that number is over 600. Of course, those numbers will only grow.

Eventually, however, the daily count will soon start to drop (there were "only" 313 reported deaths in NYC on Saturday after several days around 500) and we will slowly emerge from our houses and apartments like bears after hibernation. After a few weeks or months, another wave of infections is likely, particularly if testing is not widely available. The virus is at different stages in different places and asymptomatic people will start traveling, so even an area that is relatively free of the virus will see it re-introduced, and the outbreak will begin anew. This pattern will continue until a vaccine is developed or we achieve herd immunity (which would result in many more dead). The Spanish Flu pandemic that started in January 1918 did not end until December 1920. It is fair to say that this is just getting started.

I wonder if we will remember the lessons learned this time. Humanity's biggest conceit is found in the phrase "Man Versus Nature," which implies that we are somehow not a part of the natural world. In reality, we are just another species, subject to the whims of the planet, whether in the form of natural disaster, a rapidly spreading contagion, or our own foolishness in destroying the climate. After this, I would hope for more humility from leaders and a much faster response regardless of political leanings. The first step would be electing politicians who care more about the people they serve than themselves. Interesting side note: the dem in pandemic comes from "demos", Greek for "the people" and the same dem found in democracy. It seems like the emergence of one has led to the decline of the other.

This blog is about sports travel, so I will add a final bit on the future of sports, as crass as that may seem. The NHL and NBA are hoping to salvage their seasons in neutral sites with no fans, but I can't see that occurring (update: I was wrong on this; both finished their season successfully). In Japan, sumo held its March tournament in Osaka behind closed doors, but the sumo world is incredibly insular, making it easier to keep everyone quarantined. All participants (there are about 700 in all, plus 150 officials and support staff) were "tested" every day by a temperature check (meaningless when many carriers show no symptoms) and when one top-level wrestler had a fever, he was prevented from competing until he recovered, which took three days (he did not have coronavirus). As well, the bouts takes place at the same venue every day, allowing for it to be kept clean. The number of games in hockey and baseball would require multiple venues and some travel; I can't imagine the NBA and NHL would put the players' safety above their need for TV revenue. Maybe by June we will know more, but as a full playoff would be impossible by then, any champion would have an asterisk.

MLB might be able to play a shortened season in spring training stadiums in Phoenix and Florida, ensuring that players remain in quarantine at hotels and keeping stadiums and locker rooms disinfected. Still, 40 man rosters would be a necessity to cover injuries and poor performance. With no minor leagues to be sent to, a player who is cut would have to re-enter the real world. That should be enough motivation to play well.

I doubt that regular sports will happen until the NFL season begins in September, and even then, I am not confident fans will be admitted. So much depends on the next couple of months and whether this first wave can be contained enough that future waves are kept in check. For many fans who have underlying conditions, going to a game could be akin to Russian roulette. One panelist on a recent conference call predicted the autumn of 2021 before sports returns to normal. I hope that he is wrong, and I will attend a game sometime this year and have something to write about. Either way, it will be a long time before we get back to normal, whatever that means now.

In the meantime, stay safe and follow the rules. Protect yourself and protect others, not least the medical professionals who are doing their best in an impossible situation. Don't be a covidiot. I hope to see all my readers healthy whenever I am able to post my next stadium visit.

Best,

Sean