The Best and Worst of the NFL Draft from 2000-09

For my next post in the series on the NFL draft, I've again used Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value (AV) metric for all drafts from 2000-09. A player is assigned an AV each season based on his statistics, and the AV over his career is CAV. PFR weights the CAV as well, so there are two metrics: total CAV (tCAV) and weighted CAV (wCAV). Playoffs are not included. AV is similar to WAR in baseball, and is for entertainment purposes only.

In this case, I have compiled a list of the top player by tCAV, sleepers (highest tCAV drafted in 3rd round or after), busts (generally the first round pick with lowest tCAV), and surprises (using tCAV/G, I added them because I was surprised to see them so high on the list).

Year    Best Player (Pick, tCAV)   Top Sleeper (Pick, tCAV)     Biggest Bust (Team, Pick, tCAV)  Surprise (tCav/G)
2000    Tom Brady (199, 280)       Tom Brady (199, 280)         R. Jay Soward (Jax, 29,2)        Chad Pennington (.697)
2001    Drew Brees (32, 267)       Steve Smith (74, 103)        Jamal Reynolds (GB, 10, 3)       Matt Light (.710)
2002    Julius Peppers (2, 185)    Brian Westbrook (91, 80)     Wendell Bryant (Ari, 12, 4)      David Garrard (.802)
2003    Terrell Suggs (10,156)     Lance Briggs (68, 124)       Charles Rogers (Det, 2,4)        Domanick Williams (.850)
2004    Phillip Rivers (4,204)     Jared Allen (126, 127)       Rashaun Woods (SF, 31, 1)        Bob Sanders (.680)
2005    Aaron Rodgers (24, 184)    Frank Gore (65, 129)         Troy Williamson (Min, 7, 8)      Logan Mankins (.801)
2006    Jahri Evans (108, 143)     Jahri Evans (108, 143)       Matt Leinart (Ari, 10, 12)       Jay Cutler (.712)
2007    Adrian Petersen (7,121)    Marshall Yanda (86, 113)     JaMarcus Russell (Oak, 1, 6)     Patrick Willis (.973)
2008    Matt Ryan (3, 179)         Josh Sitton (135, 98)        Vernon Gholston (NYJ, 6, 4)      Carl Nicks (.795)
2009    Matthew Stafford (1, 118)  Julian Edelman (232, 69)     Aaron Maybin (Buf, 11, 4)        Josh Freeman (.661)

In some years, the biggest bust might have had a higher tCAV rating than some other draftees, but name recognition and higher draft position also come into play (Leinart and Russell in particular). Some might think that Aaron Curry, drafted 4th overall in 2009, might be a bigger bust than Maybin, but Curry did play 35 games with Seattle (CAV 16), while Maybin's CAV of 1 was achieved in 27 games for the Bills. Meanwhile, the Patriots have the two biggest sleepers in Brady and Edelman, part of the reason for their incredible success.

I've spent a lot of time looking over these draft results and it can be quite fun to see who succeeded and who didn't. It is also entertaining to find old draft columns, like this one from Skip Bayless in 2006, and see how the writer did. Cutler was certainly a better pick than Leinart, so chalk one up for the Skipper.

The next post will be on undrafted players, and I'll also have a post on the 2012 draft and how Seattle dominated that day, leading to their 2013 Super Bowl win. Keep checking back for updates.

Best,

Sean