AFC Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Week 18 NE 9-4 KC 10-4 KC 11-4 Ten 11-5 Ten 12-5 Ten 9-4 NE 9-5 Ten 10-5 KC 11-5 KC 12-5 KC 9-4 Ten 9-5 Cin 9-6 Cin 10-6 Buf 11-6 Bal 8-5 Cin 8-6 Buf 9-6 Buf 10-6 Cin 10-7 LAC 8-5 Ind 8-6 Ind 9-6 NE 10-6 LV 10-7 Ind 7-6 LAC 8-6 NE 9-6 Ind 9-7 NE 10-7 Buf 7-6 Buf 8-6 Mia 8-7 LAC 9-7 Pit 9-7-1 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- Cle 7-6 Bal 8-6 Bal 8-7 LV 9-7Ind 9-8Cin 7-6 Pit 7-6-1 LAC 8-7 Pit 8-7-1Mia 9-8Den 7-6 LV 7-7 LV 8-7Mia 8-8LAC 9-8Pit 6-6-1 Mia 7-7 Pit 7-7-1 Bal 8-8Cle 8-9LV 6-7 Cle 7-7 Cle 7-8Cle 7-9Bal 8-9Mia 6-7 Den 7-7 Den 7-8Den 7-9
Week 18: Tennessee won to take the top seed. Cincinnati rested some starters and allowed Buffalo to move into the third seed, where they will face the Patriots. Las Vegas won the Sunday nighter in rather dramatic fashion and jump to the 5th seed due to their better record than New England in common games (5-1 vs Miami, Chargers, Dallas, Cleveland, and Indy, Pats went 2-4). Baltimore fell from the 4th seed in Week 14 to 12th, while Las Vegas went from 12th to 5th. The other team to get into the playoffs from Week 14 was Cincinnati, while Indianapolis dropped out after their inexplicable loss to Jacksonville.
Week 17: KC lost and Tennessee won to take over the top seed due to their win over the Chiefs back in Week 7. Buffalo and New England both won to keep pace. The Colts lost to Vegas but maintain the sixth seed because they have a better conference record (7-4) than the Chargers (6-5), who beat Vegas to win the division tiebreaker. Miami has been eliminated because they cannot win any tiebreakers at 9-8. Despite losing to Miami, Baltimore still has a chance, but they need Vegas to beat the Chargers, Miami to lose to the Patriots, and Indy to lose to Jacksonville. The Ravens would win the 3-way tiebreaker between LA and Indy as they beat both teams early on. The Colts have an easy game in Week 18 against Jacksonville and should take one of the final two spots, while the winner of the Chargers/Raiders game will take the other. Of course, if the Colts lose, then the Chargers and Vegas would both get in if they tied. Pittsburgh lost to both the Charges and Raiders so they would be the odd team out if all three finished 9-7-1 (and the Colts lost), but the Steelers would get in if they win and Indy loses. All eight AFC games have playoff implications at this point.
Week 16: The Chiefs are the only team to have clinched. Cincinnati (7-3) has a better conference record than Buffalo (6-5), who take the East because of a better divisional record (4-1) than New England (3-2), who lost to Indianapolis in Week 15 and have dropped to sixth seed after being top just two weeks ago. Miami have won 7 in a row and now have the 7th seed after being 13th two weeks ago. Las Vegas lost to the Chargers on Monday in Week 4 and are excluded from the tiebreakers as long as LA remains; Baltimore has a worse conference record (5-6) than Miami and the Chargers (5-5). Miami then wins the common games tiebreaker, going 4-1 against New England, Las Vegas, Houston, Baltimore, and the Giants; the Chargers are 2-3 in those games. Baltimore defeated the Chargers to take 8th. Cleveland beat Denver to take the sadly still relevant 12th spot. I think the Chargers will win out and take that final spot over Miami, who have benefited from a weak schedule during their streak. Update: Miami did not make it, but the Chargers were eliminated by Vegas.
Week 15: KC should have the West after that overtime win over the Chargers. New England beat Tennessee earlier in the season to take second. Then we have five 8-6 teams and four 7-7 teams. Thankfully, Pittsburgh got a tie to make things a bit easier. Cincinnati takes the North by virtue of their win over Baltimore, but the two play on Boxing Day. Indy (7-3) and the Chargers (5-4) have better conference records than Buffalo and Baltimore at 5-5. Bills take the final spot based on wins in common games (3-2 vs Pittsburgh, Miami, KC, and Indy; the Ravens are 2-2 but play Pittsburgh again).
Week 14: New England's 7-1 conference record gives them top spot. Tennessee beat KC to take second. Indy has the best conference record of the 7-6 teams. Cincy has the second best conference record but because they lost to division rival Cleveland, they are not included in this tie-breaker. So Buffalo take the last playoff spot with a 5-5 conference record. Cleveland also beat Denver, so they get the 8th seed, then the Bengals 5-3 vs AFC teams is better than the Broncos 3-5, though the two teams play in Week 15. Las Vegas beat Miami in overtime back in Week 3, but I don't see either team getting in. Update: Vegas did it, amazingly.
NFC Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Week 18 GB 10-3 GB 11-3 GB 12-3 GB 13-3 GB 13-4 TB 10-3 Dal 10-4 Dal 11-4 LAR 12-4 TB 13-4 Ari 10-3 TB 10-4 LAR 11-4 TB 12-4 Dal 12-5 Dal 9-4 Ari 10-4 TB 11-4 Dal 11-5 LAR 12-5 LAR 9-4 LAR 10-4 Ari 10-5 Ari 11-5 Ari 11-6 SF 7-6 SF 8-6 SF 8-7 SF 9-7 SF 10-7 Was 6-7 Min 7-7 Phi 8-7 Phi 9-7 Phi 9-8 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- Min 6-7 Phi 7-7 Min 7-8 NO 8-8NO 9-8Phi 6-7 NO 7-7 Atl 7-8Atl 7-9Atl 6-7 Was 6-8 NO 7-8Min 7-9NO 6-7 Atl 6-8 Was 6-9Was 6-10
Week 18: Despite losing to Detroit, Green Bay keeps top spot by virtue of their better conference record (9-3 vs Tampa Bay's 8-4). The Rams let San Francisco into the playoffs and fell behind Dallas, whose 10-2 conference record is the best in the league. The Eagles take the final spot because of that Week 11 win over the Saints. From Week 14, the Eagles made the playoffs at the expense of WFT.
Week 17: Dallas lost to drop to fourth, and they will likely stay there and host Arizona again on Wild Card Weekend. Update: Wrong. All other playoff teams won. New Orleans needs to win and have San Francisco lose to take that final spot. The Eagles have clinched because they beat New Orleans in Week 11, but they are behind San Francisco because the 49ers beat them in Week 2. Six NFC games have playoff teams, with the Bears/Vikings and WFT/Giants the two that don't.
Week 16: Four more teams have clinched and there is some separation now between them and the chasers. Despite losing the season opener to Tampa Bay, Dallas wins the tiebreaker between the three 11-4 teams because they have won every other NFC game they have played. Meanwhile, the Rams beat the Buccaneers way back in Week 3 and the 49ers beat the Eagles in Week 2. In the thrilling battle for 8th place, Atlanta beat New Orleans earlier but their 4-7 conference record is worse than Minnesota at 5-5. WFT still has a chance. I don't know how, but they do. Even then, I don't see any of the teams out of the playoffs in this conference sneaking in. Update: they did not.
Week 15: Packers are the first to clinch. Dallas takes second based on their 8-1 conference record. Arizona has a 4-1 division record to edge the Rams at 3-2 but the Cardinals still lose the tiebreaker to Tampa Bay based on strength of victory. Of course, the real excitement is three 7-7 teams battling for that final playoff spot. Minnesota temporarily takes it due to a better common games record (3-2 against Detroit, Carolina, Dallas, and the Chargers) than Philly, who went 2-3. This is surprising considering the Vikings lost to the Lions. What is interesting is that this is the first common games tiebreaker to involve a team from the other conference, now that there is that 17th game. The NFC East is playing the AFC West which is why the Eagles met the Chargers, but the Vikings faced them because the North-West matchup was the 17th game and both clubs finished third in their division. Those games are the difference right now. Not that it matters because Minnesota is going nowhere after their next two games. Meanwhile, Philadelphia beat New Orleans early in the season, while WFT defeated Atlanta to take the coveted 10th spot.
Week 14: The Packers 8-2 conference record is better than the Buccaneers and Cardinals at 6-3. Tampa Bay takes second based on strength of victory. There are five teams at 6-7 fighting for one spot, so kudos to the NFL for expanding the playoffs. Washington's 5-3 conference record beats the rest of the dreck. Looking forward to an 8-9 team making the postseason and getting to play a team that finished five games ahead of them. Update: This did not happen, but 9-8 Philly travels to 13-4 Tampa Bay.
Best,
Sean
Sean
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