The NHL playoffs begin tomorrow and there is no prohibitive favourite to hoist Lord Stanley's mug at this point. The Vegas Golden Knights are the defending champions but they will not repeat, at least according to a trend I have noticed. Every year at this time, I simulate the playoffs based on season series, and every time the simulation winner does not follow through by taking the Cup. Of course, predicting one team not to win is not that hard, but still, this method has worked for over a decade now. Below are the results based on what happened in the regular season meetings between the two clubs:
Atlantic
Florida over Tampa Bay (2-1)
Metropolitan
NY Rangers over Washington (2-2, 9-9 GD)*
Carolina over NY Islanders (2-1-1, 16-14 GD)*
It is rare for a Wild Card team to top the simulation because they don't win so many season series, but in this case, things work out for Vegas. Which means they won't work out in real life. So who will win? Well, the team that eliminates Toronto makes the final, so the Bruins will be there from the East. In the West, I think one of the Canadian teams will finally get in, and that should be Vancouver. I think the Bruins will win the Cup, much like I did in 2011, one of the few times I got something right.
Florida over Tampa Bay (2-1)
Boston over Toronto (4-0)
Boston over Florida (4-0)
Boston over Florida (4-0)
Metropolitan
NY Rangers over Washington (2-2, 9-9 GD)*
Carolina over NY Islanders (2-1-1, 16-14 GD)*
NY Rangers over Carolina (2-1)
Central
Vegas over Dallas (3-0)
Winnipeg over Colorado (3-0)
Vegas over Winnipeg (3-0)
Pacific
Central
Vegas over Dallas (3-0)
Winnipeg over Colorado (3-0)
Vegas over Winnipeg (3-0)
Pacific
Vancouver over Nashville (3-0)
Edmonton over Los Angeles (3-1)
Vancouver over Edmonton (4-0)
Semifinals
NY Rangers over Boston (3-0)
Vegas over Vancouver (2-2, 14-11 GD)*
Final
Vegas over NY Rangers (2-0)
* For season series that are tied in points, the tiebreaker is goal differential and then the better team as in the Rangers/Washington case.
Semifinals
NY Rangers over Boston (3-0)
Vegas over Vancouver (2-2, 14-11 GD)*
Final
Vegas over NY Rangers (2-0)
* For season series that are tied in points, the tiebreaker is goal differential and then the better team as in the Rangers/Washington case.
It is rare for a Wild Card team to top the simulation because they don't win so many season series, but in this case, things work out for Vegas. Which means they won't work out in real life. So who will win? Well, the team that eliminates Toronto makes the final, so the Bruins will be there from the East. In the West, I think one of the Canadian teams will finally get in, and that should be Vancouver. I think the Bruins will win the Cup, much like I did in 2011, one of the few times I got something right.
Update: The first round was pretty chalk, with the two Central Division series going against the regular season outcomes, though neither was an upset. Toronto lost of course, and Vegas is already out as expected.
Best,
Sean
I’m good with whatever theory you come up with as long as the Leafs don’t win the cup. - Segal
ReplyDeleteHaving watched the first period of Game 1 against the Bruins, I think you have nothing to worry about
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