Why Tampa Bay will not Win the Stanley Cup

The NHL playoffs begin tomorrow and once again, I am here to tell you which team will not win the Cup based on season series. Every year, the team that would win based on season series records does not. Of course, predicting one team not to win is not that hard, but still, this method has worked for over a decade now. Below are the results based on what happened in the regular season meetings between the two clubs:

Atlantic
Ottawa over Toronto (3-0)

Tampa Bay over Florida (2-2, 12-7 GD)*

Tampa Bay over Ottawa (2-2, 14-11 GD)*

Metropolitan
Washington over Montreal (2-0-1)
Carolina over New Jersey (2-2, 13-12 GD)*

Carolina over Washington (2-1-1)

Central
Winnipeg over St. Louis (3-1)

Colorado over Dallas (2-1)
Winnipeg over Colorado (3-1)

Pacific

Vegas over Minnesota (3-0)

Los Angeles over Edmonton (3-1)

Los Angeles over Vegas (3-1)

Semifinals
Tampa Bay over Carolina (2-1)
Los Angeles over Winnipeg (3-0)

Final
Tampa Bay over Los Angeles (1-1, 4-2 GD)*

* For season series that are tied in points, the tiebreaker is goal differential.

Tampa has the second highest chance to win the Cup behind Winnipeg and they were actually my pick before I did this, so I have to change it. I still think they will make the final and lose to Colorado. To be honest, I have barely watched any hockey this season as I gave up ESPN+, so this pick is based only on the fact that I was in Colorado recently. Update: my travels have no bearing on who wins NHL playoff series. So I'll pick Winnipeg now as I haven't been to Manitoba in some time. Update 2: my lack of travels also have no bearing on who wins NHL playoff series. So I'll pick Florida, since they beat Toronto. Update 3: Florida it is. Ugh.

Best,

Sean