How Much is Too Much Sports?

This year, the FIFA World Cup will be held in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, with 48 countries participating. Yes, from this edition, the tournament has expanded from 32 to 48 nations, resulting in an increase from 64 to 104 games. To play an extra 40 matches will only take one more week as the competition will now last 39 days instead of 32. The ostensible explanation for this is so that more countries can play on the world stage and Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan will be making their debut. Like we need to see those teams. No, the real reason, as with every increase in the sporting world, is money. Ticket prices are insane: face value for the best seats for a Canadian match in Toronto is $3000CAD (below), perhaps set because Italy was the likely opponent (sadly, the Azzurri lost to Bosnia and Herzegovina and will not be making the trip). I paid less to fly to Qatar and see two Canadian matches just four years ago. The secondary market offers no respite either as resale for Colombia vs. Portugal in Miami is $2133 right now on TickPick, while the cheapest ticket is $148 for Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia in Houston. $148 to see this match is about $147.50 too much. 

Meanwhile, those at home will try to watch as much as possible and advertisers will pay dearly to get their products in front of those eyeballs, as strained as they may be. Those recently announced three-minute hydration breaks are really just to show ads and not for player safety. But the questions remain: Do we really need 40 more games and an extra week? Is the quality of those extra 16 teams really adding to the proceedings? The answers really can't be known until after the tournament, but the early betting is on "No". 

FIFA is not alone in its greed as we have seen across the sporting world. UEFA added a third European competition with the Europa Conference League four years ago, and all of their tournaments were recently modified to have 36 teams in a single table. This increased the total number of matches played in the three competitions from 407 to 531. Stateside, similar changes are afoot. The NFL now has 17 regular season games (soon to be 18) and 12 playoff teams, while the NHL is adding two more games next year while also talking about expanding to 36 clubs. MLB will eventually grow to 32 teams, meaning there will be 26 more pitchers who shouldn't be in the majors, and they might allow more teams into the already diluted playoffs. The NBA will also expand to 32 teams with Las Vegas and Seattle, in addition to the pointless play-in tournament before the playoffs. Even MLS is guilty with the Leagues Cup adding more matches to an already crowded calendar.

College sports are not immune either, with the 12-team CFP just getting started, while March Madness debates the addition of eight more schools, none of whom will deserve to be there. This doesn't even consider the craziness of conference realignments, with greedy schools destroying tradition while forcing their student-athletes into ridiculous travel situations. 

Minor league baseball actually contracted to 120 teams recently, but independent leagues have filled the void and new teams are added every year. There are increasing numbers of minor league hockey, basketball, and soccer teams as well, and arena football and other niche sports continue to offer entertainment to fans in smaller towns. 

Women's sports are also heavily promoted these days, with the WNBA the most prominent example. After 30 years of losing money season after season, Caitlin Clark's arrival generated legions of new viewers (none of whom could actually name all the teams in the league) and a television deal that should lead to profitability. Similarly, the PWHL and NWSL market themselves to those whose appetite for political correctness exceeds that for compelling sport. I have nothing against women's sports and will attend games, but being told that they are just as good as the men's version is laughable, as we recently saw in the Kyrgios vs. Sabalenka debacle. 

Add in tennis, golf, rugby, cricket, and the sports world is more crowded than ever. Even pickleball has a "major league". I mean, given all the sport available, who would watch pickleball? Even I have my standards, as low as they may be.

The point of this enumeration is to realize that these days, there is too much sport. It is almost impossible to closely follow everything, requiring you to dedicate your entire waking existence and subscriptions to at least a dozen streaming services. Meanwhile the quality of the actual games suffers. More teams equals more players and these new additions simply aren't as talented as those who are already there, while more games leads to more injuries and tired athletes. Not that most fans care about the games; many attend just to post about their activity and get the dopamine hit from likes on Instagram, Facebook, and X. They arrive late, leave early, get up and down during the action, and spend much of the game on their phone. And this is why I think the madness has to end.

Essentially, these incessant increases are like an economic bubble, and like all bubbles that are caused by greed, it will pop eventually. The question is when. For live sports, I think that the World Cup could be a tipping point. Credit card defaults and debt are at an all-time high, as consumers are more concerned about social media appearances than their actual financial situation. FOMO is real and people make bad decisions because of it, but there is a limit to how far they can go into debt to maintain the illusion of wealth. Sport is a luxury product, economically speaking, and it will be the among the first items to be eliminated by struggling consumers, with smaller leagues succumbing first.

As for televised games, the NFL continues to break ratings records, but even this behemoth will topple eventually, helped by the continued fragmentation of its broadcasters and fewer youngsters taking up the game. Other sports seem to be holding steady in terms of viewers, but these numbers are easy to fudge and I don't think they add up. The NBA says that 47 million tuned in for at least part of their Christmas Day marathon, but what does that entail, especially as the five games averaged only 5.5 million? Advertisers are paying for eyes, but how many fans actually watch the commercials these days? Most use the extended break to flip to another game or head to the kitchen to grab another beer. In fact, I think a lot of fans put games on as background noise and do not watch closely until something exciting happens. I don't believe this broadcast model is sustainable, but the reckoning will take several years if not decades. 

To be clear, this is not a complaint as much as a simple observation. To me, there can be no such thing as Too Much Sports. I have always enjoyed finding less popular events to attend and will continue to do so. Still, I've pretty much stopped going to the NBA, NHL, and NFL because there is so little value in those games and I really want to focus on visiting new venues. But most fans will do the opposite and as economic reality hits, I think you will see a reduction in the peripheral sports leagues. Of course, I probably won't be around to see if this prediction comes true, but the trends bear watching. In the meantime, look for me at the National Pickleball Championship Game, wherever that may be.

Best,

Sean