Boston to win the Stanley Cup

NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman announced yesterday that the NHL plans to return with a 24-team Stanley Cup playoff, starting no earlier than July. The format involves the top four teams in each conference playing a round-robin for seeding, while the next eight teams will engage in a best-of-5 play-in series to advance, with the fifth seed taking on the twelfth and so on. From there, the series would be set by reseeding, with all series best of 7.

In the past, I have used regular season records to simulate the playoffs. So far, that method has never picked the eventual champion, and with this unique playoff set-up, the odds are even worse. But that won't stop me from trying.

Eastern Conference

The top four teams would seed as follows based on regular-season point totals against each other:
Washington (12 points)
Tampa Bay (11, 2-0 vs. Philly)
Philadelphia (11)
Boston (10)

The four play-in series would be as follows, with season series records:
#5 Pittsburgh over #12 Montreal (2-1)
#11 NY Rangers over #6 Carolina (4-0, no wonder the Hurricanes voted against this proposal)
#7 NY Islanders over #10 Florida (3-0)
#8 Toronto over #9 Columbus (1-0-1)

Using the reseeding method:
#11 NY Rangers over #1 Washington (2-1)
#8 Toronto over #2 Tampa Bay (2-1)
#7 NY Islanders over #3 Philadelphia (3-0)
#4 Boston over #5 Pittsburgh (2-1)

Again, reseeding for the conference semifinals:
#4 Boston over #11 NY Rangers (3-0)
#8 Toronto over #7 NY Islanders (1-1, Toronto advances on 7-5 goals)

Eastern Conference Final
#4 Boston over #8 Toronto (2-0-1, same record the Bruins had against the Islanders)

So Boston (who was the only team to crack 100 points) is your Eastern Champ, despite finishing last in the round robin.

Western Conference

The top four teams would seed as follows based on regular-season point totals against each other:
St. Louis (17 points)
Dallas (14)
Colorado (10)
Vegas (6)

The four play-in series would be all upsets as follows:
#12 Chicago over #5 Edmonton (2-1)
#11 Arizona over #6 Nashville (1-1, Coyotes advance on 7-5 goals)
#10 Minnesota over #7 Vancouver (2-1)
#9 Winnipeg over #8 Calgary (1-0, Heritage Classic)

Reseeding:
#1 St. Louis over #12 Chicago (4-0)
#2 Dallas over #11 Arizona (2-0)
#3 Colorado over #10 Minnesota (2-2, 13-13 goals, Colorado advances on overall record)
#9 Winnipeg over #4 Vegas (2-0)

Again reseeding for the conference semifinals:
#9 Winnipeg over #1 St. Louis (2-1-1)
#2 Dallas over #3 Colorado (4-0)

Western Conference Final:
#9 Winnipeg over #2 Dallas (both teams went 2-1-1 with an OT loss, Winnipeg advances 13-11 on goals).

Stanley Cup Final

Boston over Winnipeg 2-0

So the Bruins will hoist the Cup. Of course, as this prediction method has never been right, about the only sure thing is that another team will win.

As for a personal prediction, I'll wait until the 16 teams are set and we have some idea how the level of play has changed. With no fans and no home advantage, and most players having recovered from injuries and the long season, it will be a bizarre and unpredictable playoff. Assuming that it actually takes place.

Best,

Sean