It is Memorial Day and we are still in lockdown here in NYC, making it over nine weeks that residents have been asked to stay home to "flatten the curve". Although lockdown is entirely inaccurate, as people are always outside, bars are serving beer and cocktails to-go, and parks and beaches are open. The main differences from early March are that non-essential businesses are not yet allowed to serve the public, and many people are wearing masks on the street.
The city continues to tell New Yorkers to shelter in place, despite the curve having been flattened for over a week now. There are ten metrics that are being tracked and all ten must meet a certain level before the city can begin re-opening. I've taken the below chart from Gothamist's extremely detailed statistics page, which is updated daily.
The people of New York did what we were told, but now our paternal politicians are telling us to keep waiting because it's working. Actually, it already worked. Now a city of 8 million remains hostage to a poorly conceived metric and 52 critical care patients. Small business owners cannot afford more downtime and their livelihoods are in danger of disappearing altogether, while Cuomo and de Blasio reprimand us for our impatience. It is time to start opening the city.
The goal was always to avoid overwhelming the hospitals, and for the most part, that was achieved. Much of the additional capacity that was set up in NYC proved unnecessary. That is a good thing. But the goal seems to have morphed into trying to ensure that nobody else gets the virus. Given that New York State is the hardest hit area in the world (1 in 650 people have been confirmed as COVID-19 fatalities as I write this, and the number is certainly worse than that), it is natural that politicians who oversaw this disaster are wary, but they are making a mistake with their caution.
People need to be outside, especially those belonging to less vulnerable groups, namely the young and healthy. As long as they are wearing masks and practicing social distancing, they will be fine. The CDC shows a case fatality rate of 1/2000 (0.0005) for those under 49, and that includes co-morbidities. Businesses should be allowed to open as along as they engage in proper pandemic protocols during the early phases, limiting customers to promote social distancing and ensuring masks are being worn. That is the case right now for essential businesses in my neighbourhood, and nobody seems to mind. Time to add non-essential businesses to the mix.
The other reason that being outdoors is helpful is that sunshine provides Vitamin D, which has been shown to help reduce the effects of the coronavirus. It does not prevent you from getting the virus, but it does make it less likely that you will suffer a severe reaction. Tokyo is even denser than New York and they have managed to beat down the virus rather quickly. Widespread use of masks, better health and hygiene, and Vitamin D from fatty fish are some of the reasons. If you can't get outside, take a daily supplement. It can't hurt.
You might not have heard about this Vitamin D connection in the mainstream media, because it has yet to be proven conclusively, but do your own research. It is a lot better than hydroxychloroquine, about which you have probably heard far too much. The mainstream media has been rather unimpressive in general over the past few months, on both sides of the political fence. And that is another problem; this pandemic has become political here in the United States. The left-leaning New York Times and CNN are more concerned about blaming Trump than getting useful information out to their audience; I don't watch or read right-wing media but from what I can tell on Twitter, they are desperately trying to exonerate Trump. As I mentioned before, there is no point blaming a single individual; this was a failure of all leadership, including Governor Cuomo. The hypocrisy of the left is apparent as they fete Cuomo for being decisive and telegenic, despite his dithering and bickering with Mayor de Blasio in early March. It is also disingenuous to suggest that thousands of lives could have been saved if Trump had issued stay-at-home orders two weeks earlier - nobody would have listened. They are not listening now, with large crowds forming at beaches and lakes around the country, despite 100,000 dead across the nation, to expect that people would have stayed home with almost no cases reported is dishonest at best.
Politics have even infiltrated the mask debate, with conservatives foolishly thinking it is an affront to their liberties to be forced to wear a mask, while liberals weaponize the deaths of family members, friends and colleagues whenever they see those without a mask. In online forums, I have seen statements such as "I watched two buddies die of this and these assholes still refuse to wear a mask". I do wish everyone would wear a mask as it protects others rather than yourself, but in any population you will have those that put themselves above all else. My 2-year-old is the same, so I understand.
It is tragic that we have lost so many, but this is not the first time this has happened, nor will it be the last. Did you know about the Hong Kong flu pandemic between 1968-70 that took about a million worldwide (with the population less than half what it is now) and 100,000 stateside (with about 62% of today's population)? Life went on as usual, but that is barely mentioned now. Yes, the diseases are different, but back then, there was not an overarching fear of death that seems to pervade every decision (except, of course, any decision that would result in fewer guns).
The death toll here is certainly crushing, but it must be stated that the vast majority of victims were elderly and/or in bad health, and largely poor and minorities. Remember Vitamin D? Nursing home residents were stuck inside over the long winter, while the poor have little time to enjoy the sunshine as they commute to and from thankless jobs. Minorities also have a natural deficiency. Yet has any government urged their population to consider the benefits of supplements? Nope. Fear rules the day, not education.
We can mourn the dead, but life goes on, as it always has and always will. It is time to move ahead, knowing what we know, and help those suffering economically get back on their feet. Yes, more will catch the virus and more will die because of it. People will also continue to die of cancer (wear a mask when buying cigarettes), heart disease, the flu, car accidents, guns, and hunger (20,000 a day worldwide, many of them children). You cannot prevent death, you can only delay it. But if the cost of delaying some COVID-19 deaths is to make life miserable for many (millions of job losses and thousands of businesses forced to close), it is time to let people decide for themselves. If you are scared or vulnerable, stay home and isolate. Let the rest of us live our lives and take those risks.
Now for the mandatory sports comment. Some governments have said that they will not allow fans to attend games, even with masks, until a vaccine is available. Such incredible overreach. Let us decide. I believe that outdoor stadiums can open soon, not in the first phase, but the second. Reduced capacity, limiting concessions to grab and go items with touchless payment, hand sanitizer everywhere, improving security so that lines are well spaced, and requiring masks when not eating should be enough to allow some fans in. Hockey rinks and basketball courts might need some additional measures, but it can be done.
In the meantime, the goal should continue to be protecting hospitals and their staff. Spending time outside (Vitamin D), wearing masks, and social distancing are the ways that individuals can help to achieve this. The government has to let businesses open up so many can get back to work. Testing and contact tracing are new measures that will remain active for several months if not longer. Past pandemics have lasted between two and four years, so this one is just getting started. Significant mistakes were made in the early going, now it is time to set things right. We cannot spend two years indoors waiting for a vaccine, led by panicking politicians. Educate the populace and let us choose our path.
Best,
Sean
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