This is the final post in my series on the NFL draft. I could write a detailed analysis about every draft since 1980 but there is little additional insight to be found. I have shown that drafting well is linked to on-field success and that finding three or four elite players in consecutive drafts can immediately help a team attain a title. Due to short careers and injuries however, you have a narrow window in which to have all of your recent picks play at or near peak level in the same season, which is why dynasties are rarer these days. Trades and free agents are equally important pieces of the puzzle, as the Patriots have shown over the years.
There are two types of free agents: those who have already played several seasons elsewhere and are generally known commodities; and those who have yet to play in the league but were never even drafted. It is this second group that I am discussing in this post. More than any other league, undrafted players have a major impact in the NFL. With 1,696 players on rosters and many others on practice squads, yet only about 256 players drafted every season, there are a lot of opportunities for those overlooked on draft day to make their mark. So once again using Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value metric, I created two lists. The first comprises the top ten (plus ties) best undrafted players in history, that is, the highest total Career Approximate Value (Hall of Famers denoted with an asterisk).
Rk Player Pos From To tCAV
1 Warren Moon* QB 1984 2000 166
2 Jeff Saturday C 1999 2012 156
3 Mick Tingelhoff* C 1962 1978 151
4 London Fletcher LB 1998 2013 147
5 Dave Krieg QB 1980 1998 138
6 John Randle* DT 1990 2003 138
7 Jim Hart QB 1966 1984 136
8 Jason Peters T 2004 2019 130
9 Antonio Gates TE 2003 2018 127
10 Sam Mills LB 1986 1997 126
10 Cornell Green DB 1962 1974 126
10 Rod Smith WR 1995 2006 126
TCAV is cumulative, so the longer you play, the higher your tCAV will go. Imagine if Warren Moon hadn't spent six seasons in Edmonton (where he won five Grey Cups). A good variety of positions, with two centers following Moon, and eras, from the 1960s to today, are represented as well.The second list contains the ten most effective undrafted players, i.e. those with the best tCAV/G. This eliminates career length as a factor, though there are still some names that appear on both lists.
Rk Player Pos From To tCAV
1 Kurt Warner* QB 1998 2009 .911
2 Jeff Garcia QB 1999 2009 .832
3 Priest Holmes RB 1997 2007 .832
4 Warren Moon* QB 1984 2000 .798
5 Tony Romo QB 2004 2016 .744
6 Jeff Saturday C 1999 2012 .739
7 Willie Wood* DB 1960 1971 .723
8 Jim Langer* C 1970 1981 .709
9 Sam Mills LB 1986 1997 .696
10 Cornell Green DB 1962 1974 .692
Kurt Warner had a shorter career as he played some time in the Arena Football League and NFL Europe before beginning his miraculous rise to fame. Jeff Garcia spent five seasons with Calgary before getting his chance, while Priest Holmes signed with Baltimore and won a Super Bowl with them before moving to greater success in Kansas City. You can use PFR's play index to find a complete list of undrafted players and see many other familiar names on it.Note that these lists includes only players who played their entire career in the NFL, so those who started in the AFL, such as Jim Otto (who would be second overall in tCAV) and Larry Little (8th overall) are not shown.
That ends the series on the NFL draft. I really enjoy PFR's play index and their Approximate Value metric as it allows me to gain some insight into the game that would be otherwise untapped. If you are an NFL fan and looking for things to do during the pandemic, check them out at pro-football-reference.com.
Best,
Sean
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