We are nearly nine months into the pandemic and things only seem to be getting worse. Not with the disease itself, but with the response to it. It boggles the mind how poorly this has been handled and yet governments continue to resort to needless tyranny to try to prevent the spread of the disease. Nowhere is this more obvious than the idiotic quarantine rules put forth by New York's governor, Andrew Cuomo.
Every Tuesday, the list of states from which travellers must quarantine is released. If either of two criteria (positivity rate over 10% or 10 cases per 100,000 residents, measured by a 7-day rolling average) is met, the state is added to the list. The first metric makes sense because positivity rate is tied to the number of people having the virus, but the second is utter stupidity. Cases per 100,000 is a function of testing and population size more than virus spread. A state with a large population that does not test much will have a low number of cases per 100K, similarly a state with a low population that tests a lot will have a high number. Look at Rhode Island, which tested the most in the nation at 10.5 per 1,000 over the past week and saw a positive rate of 1.9%, which ranks 7th (I use the Johns Hopkins testing trends for these numbers). Compare these numbers to Oregon (1.5 and 5.4% respectively). But Rhode Island's cases per 100K is 27.7, while Oregon is 7.9 (the CDC data tracker is better for this number), so the Ocean State is on the NY list, while we can happily return from Eugene without worry. Ironically, Cuomo once threatened to sue Rhode Island over a plan to stop cars with New York license plates. Hypocrisy is always a sign of toxic leadership, which is certainly what New York has suffered through these past few months. Speaking of hypocrites, Cuomo considers himself an essential worker, so he doesn't have to bother with these silly rules. Do as I say, not as I do, in other words. No points for guessing what other crappy leader this resembles.
Another ridiculous aspect of the quarantine law is the 14-day rule. At some point, it became accepted that symptoms might appear as late as 14 days after infection. This is at best extremely rare with the CDC estimating that 1% of cases will have symptoms appearing after this long (I cannot find any reliably documented evidence of anybody actually having symptoms appear after 14 days). Given that knowing exactly where and when you were exposed is very difficult, it is quite likely that one or two people guessed (wrongly) when they were exposed back at the beginning of the pandemic. This erroneous information was then reported to some medical oversight committee, who sent it on to the WHO, where it eventually became the rule. The median for the appearance of symptoms is around 5 days and I would be willing to quarantine for a week. But an additional week to capture less than 5% of possible cases? Again, unnecessary and overreaching.
What is even more irritating about this law is that testing, the most important aspect of any plan to fight the disease, is completely excluded. We now have reliable rapid tests, with results available in just a few minutes. In fact, Cuomo encourages New Yorkers to get tested, because that is how we get good data about positivity rates by area. The purpose of quarantine is to keep someone who might have been exposed to COVID-19 away from others. If I have a negative test, that would imply that I have not been exposed, right? Nope, not in the eyes of our gubernatorial despot, who is still scared witless after he sent COVID patients to nursing homes, a move that left thousands dead. Andrew Cuomo? Um, one coward. Ruling by fear, another sign of a tyrant.
The level of absurdity hit a new high today. New Jersey, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania all reached the threshold to be added to the quarantine list in New York, making 43 states and territories deemed risky. But they were given an exemption, because it is "impossible to enforce". WTF? Either a state is risky or it isn't. That's it. If you cannot enforce the quarantine based on your moronic criteria, then you cannot expect us to follow it. Cuomo says that we should avoid all non-essential travel to those states, putting the onus on us, rather than having his health officials revisit what is clearly a poorly conceived law.
Look, traveling to another state with a higher rate of positivity does not automatically imply that one might have been exposed. Exposure comes from being indoors, without a mask, regardless of what state you happen to be in. Yes, chances of exposure are related to the local positivity rate if you choose to behave foolishly and go to a restaurant or bar, or otherwise spend time indoors without a mask. But those who wear a face covering, avoid being indoors with others for an extended period of time, and practice other safety protocols, are not incurring enough of a larger risk to justify a draconian quarantine. Simply put, it is your actions that determine your chance at exposure and that is how you should be judged. All of us in New York went through a tough time in March and April, and most of us are well aware of how to stay safe. We don't need a dictator, benevolent or not, to tell us how to live, here at home or while traveling.
So what should be done? As the CDC says, during and after a trip of any kind, we should "follow the same precautions [we] apply during [our] day-to-day lives". I agree, but realize that will not satisfy most health officials. So I would propose that if you travel to a state or country with a lower positivity rate, you must have a COVID test within three days of arriving, remaining quarantined until the test results are available. A negative test, and you can return to normal (as always, following all safety protocols); a positive test obviously means isolation for two weeks (and hopefully not the hospital or morgue). Many states and countries are already doing this, because it makes sense, encourages testing, and allows people to live reasonably normal lives. Why do Cuomo and his health department make things so much more difficult than necessary, especially when the pandemic has already made life miserable for so many? Chalk it up to government by the left, who always think they know better than the people they govern. Remember, you can't spell tyranny without NY.
Update: New York now allows you to take a test on the fourth day after travel and if negative, you can stop quarantine. Quite similar to my recommendation. Coincidence? Yes. But a step in the right direction.
Best,
Sean
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